San Diego will travel to Chicago on Friday to take on the NL Central leading Cubs. The Cubs are a very interesting example of a team that has uber success at home, and struggles like a below average team on the road. The Cubs are 34-17 at home, and 18-27 on the road. They have won twice as many games as they have lost at Wrigley Field, as this winning percentage at home of .667 is the third highest in the Major leagues. So yeah, the Cubs are tough at home.

San Diego is coming off of two very tough series losses after the All-Star break. Getting swept at home by Atlanta and losing to the very below average Miami Marlins are tough blows to both morale, and playoff chances. The positive news is that in baseball, there is always a game coming up the next day, and the Padres have a chance to come out and get a win on Friday against the Cubs.

Interestingly, the Padres have a 26-22 record against teams that are above .500. This puts them 8 games below .500 against teams that are below that win/loss threshold. This proves two things to Padres fans. It means that the Padres have been good enough to compete with good teams, and it means that the Padres have been inconsistent enough to lose to bad teams. Since they are 8 games below .500 against worse teams, the Friars have struggled to win against teams they should be beating.

The Friars’ playoff chances have taken some sour turns since the All-Star break. The most sane way to go about this as a Padres fan is to take things one game at a time. The Cubs are a tough team, so just focus on and see if San Diego makes any changes to pitch location, and batting approach, and who knows? Maybe the ‘Pods will steal a series in Chicago this weekend.

Friday, July 19th, 11:20 AM PST
Eric Lauer (5-7, 4.04) vs Jon Lester (9-6, 3.74)

Eric Lauer joined back up with the team yesterday in Miami, as there was some speculation that he might be pitching. His start ended up getting pushed back to Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Although his last two starts ended in a no decision, his team ended up getting a pair of wins. He finds ways to get his team into winning positions. His 0.8 WAR isn’t quite matching up to his ERA just below 4.00, however, which can be attributed to his higher rates of walks and general traffic on the bases for him. A 1.50 WHIP suggests that he is struggling to retire innings in order to get later into games, and his WAR is struggling because of it. Lauer will try to work on his strike throwing to go deep against Chicago.

Jon Lester is scheduled to pitch against the Padres on Friday afternoon. His season has been above average from the perspective of starting pitchers, but his team was hoping for a better performance this year out of him. The 35 year old veteran is getting paid $27.5 million this year to play baseball. His big time contract was a trust move by the Cubs, and he hasn’t lived up to the year by year money. Lester needs some better starts if he wants to get paid again once his contract expires next offseason. Meanwhile, Jon will be hoping to extend his 2019 campaign into double digits for wins against San Diego on Friday.

Saturday, July 20th, 11:20 AM PST
Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92) vs Jose Quintana (7-7, 4.21)

Joey Lucchesi’s 2019 campaign has been pretty average as of now. His league minimum contract status makes him a solid player for the organization, who has a sub 4.00 ERA, and a 1.0 Pitching WAR. The 26 year old has hit a tough streak on the mound as his team has lost 3 of his last 4 starts. It’s hard to place much of the blame on him as he was officially 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA in that stretch. His lack of offensive support in games has cost him some wins, but still sports a modest 7-4 record. Lucchesi will be trying to help the Padres steer back towards .500 with a win on Saturday.

Jose Quintana, who has played for both Chicago teams in his young career, is scheduled to pitch on the North Side against San Diego on Saturday afternoon. Quintana seems to be having another mediocre year on the mound, and statistically not even as consistent as Lucchesi. The 30 year old had plenty of pitching success on the South Side, but hasn’t been able to find an above average starting pitcher level season for the Cubs. His second full year has been the same “not so consistent” type year. He will be hoping to start off fast against San Diego, and build off some momentum the rest of the year and into the postseason.

Sunday, July 21st, 11:20 AM PST
Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.21) vs Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 3.46)

Cal Quantrill, the former first round pick of the Padres in 2016, has been rocking back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. His most recent start against Atlanta was huge and much needed for the Friars as he went 6 innings giving up no runs. Unfortunately, the Padres did not come out of the game with a win, but Cal was glad to finally have his first scoreless start. Coming off that performance, he will be hoping to turn in a great start to get a win on Sunday.

Kyle Hendricks has been a positive note for the Cubs in 2019. A WAR of 2.0 with 70 games remaining suggests that he is on pace for an above average season by pitching standards. The 29 year old could be heading to a very solid career statline, as he has been posting very nice numbers now for four consecutive seasons. He has been a major contributor to the Cubs’ winning ways in recent seasons. Look for Kyle to try to continue his solid stretch of success on Sunday.

Players to Watch

The two Padres players to watch for this series are Kirby Yates and Hunter Renfroe. Kirby Yates has been absolutely on fire lately, sitting down batter after batter, inning after inning. He is a very good relief pitcher. If the Padres enter the ninth inning with a lead, Yates will make his trot out to the mound to slam the door for sure. Meanwhile, for Renfroe, there have been all kinds of buzz surrounding his sudden jump in power. His .900 OPS is surprising to many, and there have even been rumors that he could end up getting traded. He could end up being a great trade piece for some much needed relief pitching. But in the meantime, he has been helping the team a lot. The 27 year old has 27 home runs this year, and has seemed to become the spark plug of this offense. Look for him to step up and try to lead this team to some quick starts as the ball jumps out of Wrigley very quickly during day games.

The two players to watch for the North siders include Kris Bryant, and Albert Almora. Kris ‘Sparkles’ Bryant is having another really good year. His .299 average with 20 bombs and a .408 on base percentage suggests that his 2018 struggles were an outlier. Kris is back to his old habits. Meanwhile, Albert Almora is hitting only .200 with a single home run in his last 7 games. His struggles at the plate will induce some extra batting cages work, alongside some extra film study. He will be hoping to get back on track this weekend and make an impact on the series.