The Padres will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers on Thursday in a four game series matchup. Although the Padres struggled at home this week to keep up in the Wild Card race, they will have a chance to bounce back this weekend. The Dodgers are 35-9 at home this year, which is a tremendously good record. The Friars are 1-4 this year against the Dodgers, and run into a red hot offense in LA this weekend. The Dodgers are winners of 6 of the last 10 games, and seem to be absolutely steam-rolling every team in their path.

Some of these statistics on LA are unreal. The Dodgers’ top nine pitchers by innings have a sub 4.00 ERA. Their starting rotation has been absolutely ridiculous to this point. Hyun-Jin Ryu’s season has been a breakout year with 103 innings pitched and a 1.83 ERA. Their staff has held teams to a second best runs allowed total of 335. Their runs scored is also second highest in the league at 464. (This is just behind Colorado who has a Park factor of 1.648 runs.) The Dodgers actually play their home games in what is considered a pitcher’s park. Their park factor ranks down at 22, and is .941. Considering this, the Dodgers are scoring boatloads of runs in a place where they shouldn’t be.

So the Dodgers are a really good team, who still isn’t in the double digit loss column for home games. What do the Padres need to have success this series? Well considering how tough it is going into Dodger Stadium and winning a 4 game series, they will be looking to take it one game at a time. Remember, the Padres have struggled at home this week to keep the opponent off the board. Considering the Friars’ offense is so explosive, the pitching is what is key for San Diego in this four game matchup.

If San Diego can have more success this weekend holding off an early rampage of offense, they will have a much better chance of grabbing wins.

Thursday, July 4, 6:10 PM
RHP Dinelson Lamet (Season Debut) vs LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-2, 1.83)

Dinelson Lamet will make his long-awaited season debut against the Dodgers on Thursday as he is coming off of 2018 Tommy John surgery on his elbow. He had 21 starts in 2017 with the Padres, grazing replacement level with a 4.57 ERA. Lamet’s workload will undoubtedly be watched carefully, and not overdone. Padres fans have expressed excitement about having Lamet back, considering how their staff has been inconsistent so far this year. Dinelson’s sudden return could even serve as an advantage considering the Dodgers have no scouting information on him since he last pitched in 2017.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is working on his best career season and is everything the Dodgers could have hoped for sporting a 1.83 ERA in 100+ innings of work slicing through lineups. The Padres have not seen Ryu so far this year, and are probably eager to have a fast start against the solid arm.

Friday, July 5, 7:10 PM
LHP Eric Lauer (5-7, 4.22) vs LHP Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 3.23)

Eric Lauer, whose start got pushed back from Wednesday to Friday, will take the hill for game 2. His season has been scraping league replacement level, with a 0.6 WAR. His 4.22 ERA isn’t bad, as it will give his team a chance to win games most nights. Lauer went 5 innings giving up 2 earned runs to LA early on during a May 3rd start, and will try to turn the ship around on the Padres’ season Friday.

Clayton Kershaw and the Padres have a familiar history, facing off numerous times over the years in division battles. He is in danger of having an ERA above 3 for the first time in over 10 full seasons. He had a chance to face off against Lauer on May 3rd, but ultimately got a no decision. Padres fans have hated facing Kershaw in the past, and would delight in contributing to raising the star pitcher’s ERA.

Saturday, July 6, 7:10 PM
RHP Chris Paddack (5-4, 3.05) vs RHP Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.78)

Chris Paddack will make his 15th start of the season on Saturday. A fan favorite, Paddack shows no fear on the mound no matter who he faces. Be sure to watch for his tenacity in this start, as he will undoubtedly show a mean glint facing the rival Dodgers. His May 14th start at Dodger Stadium didn’t go as planned, giving up 3 earned runs without being able to finish the fifth inning. His rematch on Saturday will definitely test the young gun’s composure.

Kenta Maeda has been the worst starting pitcher for the Dodgers this year. He has also been very good, sporting a 3.78 ERA and a 1.6 WAR. This is an example of the remarkable pitching staff the Dodgers have. Maeda is the only pitcher in the top 9 in innings pitched for the Dodgers not to have a sub 3.50 ERA. That stat alone just proves that the Dodgers are spectacularly good at pitching. Maeda has been an anchor for this rotation, being a solid back man. His 5 spot in the rotation has been instrumental for them winning games, because even their “worst” pitcher is still better than most team’s upper rotation men.

Sunday, July 7, 1:10 PM
LHP Joey Lucchesi (6-4, 3.91) vs RHP Ross Stripling (3-2, 3.45)

Lucchesi will make his 17th start of the season on Sunday. Both teams will probably be feeling fatigue from the long series, and the early 1:10 start won’t help either. Lucchesi’s start in this game will be paramount for the entire perception of the series. His only start against LA this season ended in a no decision on May 4th, and the Dodgers won the game against the ever-laboring Padres bullpen. Joey will be hoping for an efficient start getting deep into the game to ensure that the Padres will have a reasonable shot at taking game four.

Ross Stripling is scheduled to make his 9th start of the year on Sunday. Filling in for Rich Hill, he has been coming out of the bullpen for the majority of his appearances this year. He pitched a scoreless inning in two seperate appearances against the Friars in the early May series and will be hoping to carry that success into the Sunday start. Ross currently has a 3.24 ERA when starting games. This is noticeably better than the 4.02 ERA that he carries in his 16 relief appearances.

Players to Watch

The two Dodgers players to watch for this series are Austin Barnes and Cody Bellinger. Barnes is hitting .059 in his last 7 games and is one of the coldest players in the league at the moment. He will be trying to turn his season around starting this weekend, so it will be worth seeing what he can do against an average Padres’ pitching staff. Bellinger is the NL MVP front runner with a 6.6 WAR halfway through the year. His walk-off walk Tuesday night and walk-off home run Wednesday night should keep him hot this weekend.

The two Padres players to watch for this series are Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Machado is hitting .300 with 4 Home Runs in his last 7 games. He has been living up to the big contract this last week by killing the baseball, and he is facing his former team, which would be enough to pump up anyone. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been ridiculous on the basepaths this year. He has been scoring from first on singles, and stealing many bases. His 3.0 WAR as a 20 year old who also missed an extended period of games is a filthy stat. Tatis was absent in both series’ against the Dodgers previously, so it’s worth keeping an eye on this big time performer, who will be excited to make his rivalry debut.