We are two weeks away from the end of the MLR season, but the San Diego Legion (8-0-7, 42 pts) are on the verge of elimination. With 618 different possible combinations of point finishes between the three teams still vying for the third and final playoff spot, the Legion statistically have a 3.32% chance of making that playoff spot, sitting fourth in the MLR’s Western Conference.
There are two matches in Round 17 play that could affect the Legion’s (8-0-7, 42 pts) playoff chances, with the third-place Houston Sabercats (9-0-5, 46 pts) traveling to the fifth-place Seattle Seawolves (7-0-7, 36 pts). San Diego will face tough competition themselves when they visit the second-place Austin Gilgronis in their regular-season finale.
In the West, the @Giltinis claim the top of the table! 🍸
— Major League Rugby (@usmlr) May 23, 2022
Only two weeks remain before the top three teams in each conference move on to the Championship Series!#MLR2022 | #RiseOfRugby pic.twitter.com/kNgffC1sLh
Friday, May 27, 7:30 p.m. PDT: Seattle Seawolves vs. Houston Sabercats
If San Diego wants to hang on to their playoff hopes for one more week, they will need Seattle to take down Houston by more than seven points and limit them to fewer than four tries. The Legion can afford for the Sabercats to get one point out of the match if they can get the fifth bonus point in their Saturday match. Seattle will also want to limit Houston’s offense as they are one point (and five San Diego points) away from being eliminated from playoff contention.
Just two points for Houston, a draw or recording four tries and losing within seven points, will eliminate San Diego and clinch the playoffs for the Sabercats.
Watch nationally on The Rugby Network.
Saturday, May 28, 5 p.m PDT: Austin Gilgronis vs. San Diego Legion
San Diego will, obviously, also have to win their match, and to create a little more breathing room, will want that bonus point for recording four-plus tries against an Austin team that has allowed the fewest points all season, averaging 13 points allowed per match.
Watch nationally on The Rugby Network nationally or locally on The CW San Diego.
Because of the league’s tiebreakers; the first being total wins (if Legion were to tie they would need a win and two Houston losses to finish at nine wins each) and the second tiebreaker being total point differential (Legion have +63 while the Sabercats own a +37 differential), Legion would take the playoff spot with a tie.
It’s a slim chance, but it’s also better than no chance at all. All we can do is sit and watch it happen.